Trump is Immigrating into the Lead

Mr. Trump is going to get a bounce from his immigration-related appearances on Wednesday.  His statesmanlike visit to Mexico at the Mexican President’s invitation was a coup that was unexpected and very well handled.

 After his conciliatory tone that he struck with the Mexican President, the #NeverTrump people wet their pants with excitement that maybe he was going to be one of them after all.  They could finally get out of the corner that they have painted themselves into and finally support the Party’s nominee.

They cooed with delight that their infantile holding out had won the day and Trump would have to relent on enforcing our immigration laws to gain their support.  They were in power once again!

All afternoon here in DC, I had several calls from #NeverTrump Rs with one “I told you so” after another.  Then came Mr. Trump’s speech Wednesday evening.  They were left at the altar once again and the rest of the party was laughing at them – out loud.

Most of the day Thursday, they vented about how close Trump came to getting it right and how he is going to lose without them.  He needs them less and less every day.  (Recent polling has Trump’s Party support in the low- to mid-seventies.  Hillary is only slightly higher.  Both candidates take between 10 and 15% from the other party and Trump leads slightly among independent voters.  It is pretty much of a wash).  But . . .

Fear not, they will come aboard eventually.  They have to because it is they who are feeling the heat by standing outside of the Party and Trump is playing them perfectly.

He threw them a bone on Thursday by talking about “softening” his immigration stance on Laura Ingraham’s show.  He is screwing with their heads and it is kind of fun to watch.  

As for the actual race (you remember, the one against the Democrats):

The professional polling firms (Rasmussen, Zogby, Gravis, etc) put the race into a near dead heat – ahead of where both Romney and McCain were at Labor Day.  Even the RCP average (which I largely discount as inflated with less-reliable left-leaning media and college polls) is only around 4 points down in the 4-way.  

The battle ground states are coming along nicely as well.  The large negative margins in many of those states are held up by polls that are weeks old.  But recent polling in those states shows fairly substantial and positive movement.  

Much of this gap-closing in the polls is due more to the fact that Hillary is slipping with only modest Trump gains.  Her campaign is raising a lot of money but she is nowhere on the campaign trail and plagued with scandals.  

This polling trend is good but our man needs to pick up some points of his own.  The fall campaign will be both critical and unorthodox.  Fasten your seatbelts.  

As I have observed here previously, Hillary is hoping to run out the clock while hiding behind an enormous and well-heeled campaign.  It wouldn’t be the first time that it worked but I think that it is hopelessly outdated this time around.  Trump is too dynamic a campaigner to be beaten by a “front porch campaign.”  

To wit: On Wednesday he travelled to Mexico, made a major meeting with a head of state, held a presser there, then flew to Arizona and made an important address about immigration for an hour and a quarter in front of many thousands.  - all flawlessly.  This morning he was up early hitting the talk show circuit.  

Lately, she hasn’t done that much in a week much less in a day.  He is going to run rings around her.  

Going into Labor Day I have only one thing to say, “We’re gonna win!”  It ain’t done yet but we are gonna win!  

Enjoy the weekend!

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