Trump Debate Day Potpourri

Today is the first of 2016's presidential debates.  It will be an important day but not decisive for either side.  

 The Debate

Hillary cannot substantially gain from today’s debate however well she may perform.  There is no one in America who is not acquainted with her and there is no one who has not made-up their mind whether they can vote for her at all.  All that remains for her is to get as many possible “yes, I can” votes to the polls.  Today will largely help decide how many of these will come out (or can be brought out).  

Conversely, Mr. Trump can continue his upward trek or set himself back again.  While people well-know the public figure, “The Donald,” they are only just now becoming acquainted with Donald J. Trump, Presidential Candidate.  If The Donald shows up tonight it will be a sharp blow to his candidacy.  If candidate Donald J. Trump comes, it will be a great victory – whatever Hillary has to offer.  

As it has been this entire cycle, it is all about Mr. Trump.  

The Advertising

We here in DC have been getting huge amounts of three Hillary ads.  These are aimed more at Northern Virginia which is a swing area in a swing state.  There are three ads; one positive and two negative.  

The positive ad is a conglomeration of her statements through the years in support of kids and how she has stood for them her entire career – controversial stuff.  One of her quotes in the ad is edited sharply but anyone who has been watching Hillary for years can hear the end of this quote first made famous by her and then later by Surgeon General Jocelyn Elders: “Every child should be . . .”  

Hillary propitiously left off the second half of this quote and spliced in another finish to this sentence from a later speech.  The original finish is hardly a pro-child quote.  For those of you who do not remember, the end goes: “. . . a planned and wanted child.” – a paean to Planned Parenthood.  She apparently can’t be honest even in the use of her own quotes.  

Her two other ads are videotaped quotes by The Donald over the years which make one wince when hearing them.  I think that we can all agree that we all have said things we deeply regret.  The Donald, not having been in the public policy business until recently, has more than his fair share – especially while talking with the entertainment media.  

Ask Colin Powell whether even the most polished of politicians can say things that are off-color, controversial and embarrassing.  We all have done so and I think that people can distinguish The Donald of the past from candidate Trump today.  

Anyway, I was thinking about these ads and wondering to whom they are talking.  None are geared to her get-out-the-vote campaign.  Registration drives are ending.  None of the ads will appeal to Rs looking to cross over.  Actually they are completely ineffective for the usual purposes.  

I am convinced that the ads are aimed at the sizeable #NeverTrump goofballs who reside in Northern Virginia.  She is cannily trying to keep them corralled into their early #NeverTrump statements.  I do not think that it will work on Election Day (they will come home) but it might keep them vocally negative against Mr. Trump in the corridors of power, policy and opinion for the next few weeks.  

I commend Peggy Noonan’s recent article: “The Year of the Reticent Voter.”  As always with Ms. Noonan, it is good stuff. (The Year of the Reticent Voter).  

President Bush and Michelle Obama

CNN reports a flowering friendship between the 43rd President and the current First Lady.  Apparently they have been giggling together at gatherings for years.  Too cool.  

I am a Chicagoan.  The Ds locally love to say that their election efforts are never personal.  That it is all just politics and that no R should ever take their unfair harsh criticism and lies as a personal attack.  It is all business and we can still have a beer afterward!  

The test of this statement is to turn it around and see how fast they take it personally.  Believe me, it is a one-way street.  No D – especially the notoriously thin-skinned Obama – would take the abuse that O has heaped on W over the years.  My experience in Chicago informs me that is absolute fact.    

W has decided that the endless attacks on him, his administration and the party are no biggie and that we all should just get along.  CNN commends him for reaching out to the Obamas to be pals and further commends the Obamas for being big enough to be friends with the Texans.  Charming.  

I do not know the mind of W nor do I condemn the usual practice of past presidents getting along but I can’t help but to notice the cementing of the internationalists conjoining.  Lest we forget, W has not endorsed his own party’s candidate and isn’t expected to do so.  

This is a tableau of the political realignment that I have been talking about – the nationalists vs. the internationalists – the insiders vs. the outsiders.  Look for more of this less subtly portrayed after the election during a Trump Administration, God willing.  

Last, the Polls

The state-by-state polls are on a decided uptick.  The national polls are bouncing a little down but still on the upswing in the main.  The slight reversal on the last few days can be attributed to the media elites and their polling.  Almost exclusively, the pro-Clinton polls are by major media outlets.  To be expected.  

The trend is a great one and we are on a path to big victories.  The usual states required for any R victory (Ohio, North Carolina and Florida) and not much the topic of discussion lately.  

The prognosticators are talking about the last-ditch swing states of Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.  Some are even talking about big blue wall states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine and Rhode Island.  This is an indicator of a great trend for us.  

The election is still quite a way off and anything is possible but I think that it is clear that only one candidate has a chance at a “mandate victory.”  That candidate is Trump.  

We’re gonna win!

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