Trump is Alive and Well!

This past weekend the polling has been abysmal.  So bad even that it is hardly believable.  So, I thought that a primer on polling might help you read the polls correctly.

There are a few hard and fast rules of polling that, if violated, cast aspersions on the poll.  

No poll of the “horserace” question (who are you voting for?) can be taken over a weekend with accuracy.  People are not home, people are busy and, ordinarily, people will not sit and take a lengthy poll on “their own time.”  Those who do submit to the polling, are generally without jobs, a family or both and tend to skew to the left of the political spectrum.  Weekends do not provide good data.  

The Margin of Error is almost impossible to calculate in anything other than a two-way race.  If you do not believe me, check out Wikipedia “Margin of Error” and be ready to glaze over at the math.  I nearly got an attack of vertigo.  

However, this complexity does explain why the polling has been all over the place.  Further, the MoE does not mean exactly what you think it does – it is complicated check out the site for more data.  Enough said that anything over 2.5 – 3.0 is almost incurably flawed.   

When important events take place (debates, major revelations of wrongdoing, noteworthy campaign announcements), polling ends before the event and starts again after the event is over.  Polling through an event is usually badly skewed and utterly unreliable (although sometimes unavoidable).  

No poll should take longer than 72 hours to complete.  Otherwise, it will embrace too many events and happenings to be really accurate – especially at this stage of the campaign.  

The “delta” (the margin of winning) doesn’t matter in a four way race.  The leader MUST have enough votes on his own to win if the second guy catches fire.  In short, the winner of this presidential race will probably be north of 47% and hard to calculate the MoE.  Right now the leader is at about 45%.  This will not be enough to win – regardless of how much she leads in any given poll.  It is like watching for a candidate to rise above 50% in a two-way race.  

Past election percentages among voters are used to create voter samples.  The decision of how many Ds, Rs, women, men, whites, blacks et al, is made based on previous elections.  There is a skew in the past two presidential elections to the Ds.  This is not just because they won but because minorities came out in record numbers.  

Those same percentages are used by many poll makers in creating a sample to be polled.  In short, if blacks are over-sampled in any given poll (assuming that they will vote in the same intensity as they did in ’08 and ’12), that poll will skew waaaay left because blacks are unlikely to come out in same numbers for Hillary as they did for Obama.  

Some polls “include leaners.”  This is when the stated undecided voters are “pushed” to make a selection.  This is very unreliable and any poll which includes “leaners” is suspect on its face.  

Over the past several days some of the media “alphabet networks” and a college have posted huge margins for Hillary.  The margin simply doesn’t matter – her absolute number matters and it is barely above where she was in MUCH closer polls – without the massive problems attendant to these polls (see, list above).  Make up your own mind but I am not convinced that she is clobbering him – not at all.  

The Democratic strategy has always been to create an air of inevitability.  They do this with polling data supplied by their pals in the elite media and at universities (who are not Trump’s supporters to say the least).  

Again, you should stay with professional polling houses (Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, Gravis and many others).  Those generally put the race much closer AND have her in the mid-40s and no higher.  She cannot win at that percentage – period.
With the “air of inevitability” she hopes to depress the R vote for Trump (like they did with Romney).  Doing this makes the universe of her absolute percentage bigger as her vote comes out and his does not – in this way, her percentage of the actual vote grows to the 47+ she will need to win.
Avoid allowing the fantasy of her inevitability becoming reality – VOTE and encourage others to do the same.  

Some other points:

I know of many people (you probably do too) who publicly support her but have no intention of voting at all because they just can’t bring themselves to pull the lever for her.  How many Trump people are like that?  I’ll tell you how many, none.  This will not be a big percentage of her vote, but it is some.  

I know of many people (in Chicago especially) who are saying that they support her but are voting for him!  How many Trump supporters are lying about their support for him and actually voting for her?  Again, none.  This is not a big percentage but it is enough to off-set some of her polling gains.
Her intensity is low – especially among minorities who supported Obama in record numbers.  This is probably the most important statistic.  The polling is only true of all of those polled actually show up and vote.  If a large percentage of her voters do not vote at all, her actual percentage is a lot smaller than the mid-40s.  It is all about who is actually voting – not who supports her in a poll.
My good friend, Former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra met with Trump on Monday.  He was pleased and heartened by how upbeat the campaign was and how the man was feeling.  Trump is no actor so we can take his enthusiasm as real.  He is also working hard to prepare for the last debate on Wednesday.  

I am encouraged by this news as the elite media have used some pretty awful words to describe his campaign lately – like: reeling, in disarray, confused, thrashing about and many others.  None of that is true.  

The media is: all in for her; has lied time and again for her; has buried bad news about her; trashed all of her opponents including Sanders; and, has been as dishonest as can be.  Is there any reason to believe their polling data is the most accurate and reliable?  No, there isn’t.  Go to professional polling houses – the picture there is pretty accurate.  

For a little more explanation of how it is not as bad as it looks, check out this story: (Trump poll numbers dented, but not destroyed, amid tape fallout).

Do not let the polls spook you – that is why many of them are released.  Work hard, convince others, vote yourself and . . .

. . . We are gonna win!

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