Trump is on Course for Yuuuuuuuuge Numbers on Election Day

Greetings long-suffering, harried, exhausted and ever-loyal Trumplikins!  Mr. Trump is on his way to rolling up big numbers all across the board.  We are almost there and today I have an explanation of the last week to share, some predictions to make and a request at the end.

This Last Week:

Starting about ten days ago, the major media and college polls began to narrow to a nearly a dead heat today.  Here is what actually happened:  We were largely ahead all of the time and Hillary’s hacks in the press and at universities rigged the polling to help her.  WikiLeaks said so and told exactly how it was done.  

It was their fervent hope that all the polls would uniformly stay high and come down slowly together showing some tightening but allowing the inevitability lie to work its magic and let Hillary win with an energized base of her own and demoralized Trumplikins.  This is the “air of inevitability.”

Unfortunately for the media, three holdouts (Rasmussen, IBD and LATimes) didn’t sign-up to be stooges for Hillary and hung tough with what the media dismissed as “outliers” almost the whole last two months.  Eventually the media poll lies got so big they were unsustainable (See, ABC on its OCT 22 poll showing Hillary +12) and the media fantasies had to be reduced to look closer to reality (and the three good polls).  

They had to be substantially dialed back all at once because of the lateness in the campaign.  While doing that, the perpetrators of the big lie about her inevitability inadvertently created the illusion of a Trump Wave swelling and they all brought their numbers down dramatically, together and in a short amount of time.  
 
In reality, there was no change in Trump’s position.  The polls just started to reflect reality instead of the fantasy of her “inevitability.”  However illusory the “wave” may have been, it was finally telling only the truth.  However, it set in motion an assortment of other factors which redounded to Mr. Trump.
 
First, the illusion of a “wave” shattered her argument that her election was inevitable – a complete necessity for D GOTV activities.  Ds love a pile-on – believe me I am from Chicago and I have been on the bottom of that pile.  It also energized R efforts across the board.  

Second, it reversed the move by the DNC to drown D Senate candidates in money and to try to take-over Congress.  In fact, the “wave” was so clumsily conspicuous that Hillary had to spend, spend and spend some more as Rs were newly energized all week.  E.g., She is up in Chicago with a major media buy as well as Wisconsin and Michigan – places she had no plan in which to fight.  

Third, over the past few days, she has emptied the various DNC accounts to accomplish these ad buys.  The plan to lavish money on the Senate and House races was so successfully blown that the opposite has taken place and all that money is being plowed into saving her.  I get ALL of the D mailers due to an improvident D donation twenty years ago and I read the panic in the emails all day long.  It’s great!

Pat Caddell, the former Carter pollster, now predicts a Trump wave election on proportions of Ronald Reagans’ 1980 election.  He gives credit to the FBI matters but I think that it is only a part and we were on our way to a big win anyway.  History will tell how it really happened – if it comes to pass.  (It will!)

More as the week goes on and I will keep you all abreast.
 
Predictions:
 
There are three “flavors” of Swing states:  Red, purple and blue.  The Red states are NC, FL and OH.  The Purple states are IA, NV, CO, VA and NH.  The Blue swing states are: PA, MI, WI and MN.  

Usually we spend our time talking about the red states.  In this election their statuses are as follows:  

1) Ohio is Trump – Hillary abandoned Ohio to the state party two weeks ago and we are in like flint there.  Trump’s guys have done a great job to make it untenable for Hillary and it is a big win against hard working D operatives and Governor Kasich who has been more in the way than not.  

2) Florida is Likely Trump – we are leading in the polls, The Ds are behind in their 2012 goals in early voting and the African Americans are just not interested in playing down there.  It is pretty much over and we are OK.  

3) NC is likely Trump too – see FL rationale and add to the list that Hillary was way ahead in early voting over the 2012 baseline but has fallen off precipitously since that first week and we are likely to win it as we are working harder than ever to deliver it up and down the ballot.  

Let’s talk purple states:

1) IA is consistently been in the Trump camp.  Hillary is not making a serious play for it and we are growing stronger there than usual, quicker.  

2) NV is a seesaw race which will come down to turnout.  With Trump’s legions excited and ready to get the vote out, NV looks better and better but it is 50/50 today.
 
3) Colorado is anybody’s guess.  The theft magnet of the mail-in ballot is rife with corruption but that method does get in a higher percentage of total the vote than in other states.  I really do not think that we will know for sure until Election Day but if I had to guess based on what I see today, I think D likely – just for the corruption if for nothing else.  

4) Virginia is moving to toss-up from solidly D.  Hillary is up on the air here in DC with exclusively #NeverTrump ads aimed at NOVA (Northern Virginia).  GEN Allen is her latest coup in denouncing Trump for the criminal Hillary.  Then you have the 200,000 provisional ballots ready to be cast in VA in anticipation of the felons re-enfranchised by the VA governor (and apparently anyone else who wants a ballot) – in opposition to the courts and the legislature.  This race has been moving our way but as of today, likely Hillary.  In a week, who knows?  

5) New Hampshire, Mr. Trump has been nearby twice recently (actually in Maine next door attracting the NH voter as well).  It is trending well.  Narrowly, but I call it for Trump (with the ME district as well).  
 
Now, let’s talk the upper-Midwest, Blue swing states.  These states are all in the same mix.  

Hillary did not plan to have to defend them (except for PA) and Trump did not plan to go on the offensive there.  Such are the fortunes of war.  

The “wave” has sent them both there – her to defend and him to exploit weakness.  Surrogates have been all over WI and MI and Trump polling puts the races there close.  Breaking late, Trump expects PA to move to them.  MN is anyone’s guess.
 
My guess: PA, MI possibly to Trump, MN to Hillary and WI to either at this stage.  This week will tell the tale in the Upper-Midwest.  

My big surprise:

Illinois to Trump.  No, I gave up drinking over twenty years ago.  

Illinois is really a swing state however much the Rs in recent years have ignored it.  It is just that it is so hard and expensive for the Rs to contest that it is usually not worth the candle but certain factors have come to light in this state in that last few weeks.  With the rest of the Upper-Midwest in play, Illinois is too.  

The vote in Illinois is generally cut into three parts: one third in Cook County (about 70/30 D); one third in the “collar” counties around Cook (about 60/40 R); and the rest of the state (about 50/50 even).  You see, it is pretty competitive to begin with but battling in Chicago for the win is an expensive and painful game.  

Stephanie Holderfield, Trump’s Illinois Director is doing a great job and has supplied the following info:  Of the D counties downstate, the coal country at the bottom of the state is substantially going our way – so much so that there is union violence employed by the left to suppress the vote.  St. Clair County (right across from St. Louis), will likely break 50/50 instead of overwhelmingly D and we have made some inroads in the Quad Cities area in the NW part of the state.  Downstate 55/45 R.  

Stephanie also tells me that the collar counties are over energized R and will turn-out in both greater numbers overall and high R percentages.  65/35 R.  

Last, my folks in Chicago tell me of white working-class Trumpapalooza and I believe that there is a well of African American support for Mr. Trump larger than the norm.   I call Cook County 65/35 D.   Overall, a Trump win in Illinois.
 
My Request:

Please work on #NeverTrumnpers and R women wherever you are.  They will be the key to having a really big turn-out and we will need them in the end.  Pray, call, talk with others, donate and work hard for just one more week.  As my friend in AA says: “Don’t quit before the miracle.”  

Those of you who know me well know that I take a 90 minute walk in my SW DC neighborhood each day.  It is 80% African American and 20% white uber-liberal.  I will be wearing my red “Make America Great Again” hat until Election Day on my walk starting tomorrow to test the waters.  There’s absolutely no sign of life of any Hillary campaign anywhere around here.  I want to see what kind of reception I get.  

I promise to report dutifully (hopefully not from the hospital).  

We are soooooo gonna win!

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